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Bitcoin Miners Expected to Liquidate $5 Billion in BTC Post-Halving

Market analysts are anticipating that Bitcoin miners could offload approximately $5 billion worth of Bitcoin in the months following the upcoming halving, a trend observed in previous cycles. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, outlined these projections in an analyst note dated April 13, highlighting the potential for a prolonged period of selling pressure and sideways movement in Bitcoin’s price.

Thielen suggests that history may repeat itself, with Bitcoin entering a “summer lull” lasting four to six months following the halving. This prediction is based on observations from past halving events, during which Bitcoin prices remained relatively stagnant within a certain range for several months. Notably, after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin traded within the $9,000 to $11,500 range for five months.

With this year’s halving scheduled for around April 20, only days away, Thielen speculates that significant upward momentum in Bitcoin’s price may not materialize until around October. He attributes this delay to miners’ preference to stockpile BTC leading up to the halving, resulting in a supply/demand imbalance and subsequent price rally. Indeed, Bitcoin saw a 74% increase in value in 2024, reaching a record high of $73,734 in March before experiencing a correction in mid-April.

Thielen also discusses the potential impact on altcoins, noting that while there is speculation about a post-halving rally, historical evidence suggests such rallies typically occur approximately six months later.

Regarding specific mining operations, Thielen highlights Marathon as the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, noting that they have accumulated inventory likely to be gradually sold post-halving to mitigate revenue losses. Marathon’s daily mining output is currently around 28–30 BTC, which could add an additional 133 days of supply to the market post-halving, assuming production remains consistent at 14–15 BTC per day.

If other miners adopt a similar strategy, Thielen estimates that up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin could be sold daily post-halving, potentially reversing the supply-demand dynamics that fueled the recent price rally.

Marathon CEO Peter Thiel has stated that the company’s break-even rate for profitability post-halving is around $46,000 per BTC, indicating their readiness for potential price fluctuations in the six months following the event.

Despite short-term volatility, many experts, including Alvin Kan, COO at Bitget Wallet, anticipate a prolonged bull market for Bitcoin following the halving, driven in part by continued positive ETF flows and investor anticipation of the halving’s historical impact on Bitcoin’s price.

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