Solana ETF Approval Hinges on 2024 Presidential Election: Bloomberg Analysis

Solana ETF Approval Hinges on 2024 Presidential Election: Bloomberg Analysis

Election Outcome Critical for Solana ETF Approval

The approval of a Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) may depend significantly on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. In a July 9th post on X, Balchunas suggested that the election could be the “most important” factor influencing the Solana ETF decision.

Balchunas believes that a Biden victory could jeopardize the approval of Solana ETFs, while a Trump presidency might create a more favorable regulatory environment, increasing the likelihood of approval. A June 27 report by GSR Markets predicts that the approval and launch of US spot Solana ETFs could potentially increase the SOL price by nine times.

Decision Deadline Set for Mid-March 2025

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make a decision on Solana ETFs by mid-March 2025. This follows the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) filing two Form 19b-4 applications on July 8 to list proposed ETFs from VanEck and 21Shares. The CBOE’s filing highlighted Solana’s decentralization, throughput, and speed, arguing that these characteristics make it resistant to manipulation that could harm investors.

According to SEC rules, the agency has 240 days to decide on the Solana ETFs, which would allow the necessary rule change for CBOE to list the products. ETF analyst Nate Geraci noted that the “decision clock will start ticking” once the SEC acknowledges the filings.

Crypto’s Role in the 2024 US Election

The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be pivotal for the future of cryptocurrency regulation. A recent poll by the Digital Currency Group underscores the significance of cryptocurrency as a major issue for US voters. The current Biden administration has taken a stringent regulatory approach, which some interpret as hostile towards cryptocurrency. In contrast, the Trump campaign has expressed a supportive stance, aiming to position the US as a global leader in the cryptocurrency space.

During a fundraising event in San Francisco, Trump affirmed his commitment to cryptocurrency, calling himself the “crypto president” and emphasizing the need for the US to lead in the field. A 2023 Grayscale survey indicates that US voters want presidential candidates to have an informed perspective on innovative technologies like cryptocurrency. This reflects a public consensus for pro-crypto governance.

The growing preference for crypto-friendly policies, combined with an increasing number of American cryptocurrency holders—reported to be approximately 20% of adults according to a 2023 Coinbase study—suggests that a pro-cryptocurrency stance could be advantageous for candidates in the upcoming election.

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