Polymarket Surpasses $100M Monthly Trading Volume as US Election Predictions Heat Up

Polymarket Surpasses $100M Monthly Trading Volume as US Election Predictions Heat Up

Decentralized predictions platform Polymarket has surpassed $100 million in monthly trading volume for June, driven by intense anticipation around the upcoming United States presidential election. The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market alone holds an impressive $203.3 million worth of bets across 17 individual prediction markets.

Current Election Favorites

At present, former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win the election, holding a 62% chance with $24.7 million in bets for and against his victory. President Joe Biden follows closely with $23.9 million in bets on his potential second term. However, Biden’s odds have dropped from 34% to 21% following a lackluster performance in the recent Presidential Debate on June 28.

Emerging Election-Related Bets

The debate performance has sparked new markets, such as “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4,” which currently stand at 43% and 9% respectively, with over $10 million in bets placed on these predictions. Additionally, there are markets with millions of dollars in bets on whether figures like American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren could win the presidency, although these markets currently show less than a 1% chance of success.

Record-Breaking Trading Volume and Growth

Polymarket, operating on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, achieved a remarkable trading volume of $109.9 million in June, marking the first time it has crossed the $100 million mark. This represents a significant increase from trading volumes between January and May, which ranged from $38.9 million to $63 million, amounting to a staggering 620% growth compared to the preceding five months (August-December 2023).

The platform also saw the number of monthly active traders skyrocket by 115%, reaching 29,266 in June. Additionally, Polymarket experienced a surge in total value locked, reaching $40.2 million—a nearly 69% increase over the past 30 days, as reported by Token Terminal data.

Expanding Beyond US Elections

Polymarket has also seen substantial trading volumes in markets related to the UEFA European Football Championship 2024, in addition to cryptocurrency prices. Launched in June 2020, Polymarket recently secured $70 million in funding and boasts support from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund.

Significance of Prediction Markets

“Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy,” wrote Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, in a recent post on X. “They take free markets and free speech as inputs and output truth. In an age when centralized control of information is a systemic risk, prediction markets offer a way of cutting through misleading narratives and viewing the unvarnished truth.”

Impact on Voter Decisions

A survey conducted by the Harris Poll revealed that one in three US voters considers a candidate’s position on cryptocurrencies before making their voting decision. Another survey by leading crypto venture capital firm Paradigm indicates significant support for Trump from the crypto community, with 48% of crypto owners planning to vote for him, compared to 39% for President Joe Biden.

As Polymarket continues to grow and attract more users, it demonstrates the increasing relevance and influence of prediction markets in shaping public opinion and providing insights into future events.

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